* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112023 08/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 6 8 20 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 0 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 330 332 343 12 24 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 149 152 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -51.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 54 54 51 52 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -72 -73 -82 -88 -62 -12 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -14 -9 -21 -36 -20 -27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -3 -6 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1511 1528 1547 1577 1607 1726 1527 1312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.7 31.0 32.9 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.3 52.5 52.8 52.9 53.0 53.0 52.5 51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 6 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 21 20 15 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.1 52.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112023 ELEVEN 08/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 14.3% 9.9% 8.4% 6.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112023 ELEVEN 08/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112023 ELEVEN 08/30/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 34 35 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 33 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT