* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 23 27 32 36 40 48 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 23 27 32 36 40 48 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 22 25 26 29 34 32 45 38 16 37 37 26 17 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 1 2 5 2 -1 1 4 0 -6 -2 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 13 17 20 33 50 43 29 19 2 3 301 201 166 159 143 111 155 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.8 29.1 27.9 26.7 23.4 15.3 14.8 14.8 15.6 12.1 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 158 159 155 150 155 138 126 99 71 66 68 73 71 72 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -49.2 -48.7 -49.4 -48.6 -48.8 -49.4 -49.5 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 63 64 63 61 60 55 49 52 56 60 61 61 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -68 -70 -51 -17 -1 8 62 154 154 97 47 75 93 92 93 125 200 MB DIV -12 -1 9 6 1 -3 -14 48 94 97 175 110 14 27 70 75 -23 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 -3 4 5 -8 23 -2 33 25 7 -14 -17 -17 -49 LAND (KM) 989 1072 1130 1193 1256 1443 1676 1592 1405 1131 797 540 364 440 760 1111 726 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.4 34.6 38.2 43.5 47.1 48.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 58.5 58.3 58.0 57.7 56.4 54.2 51.1 48.0 45.4 43.9 45.5 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 7 10 13 15 18 25 24 15 4 11 21 29 32 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 29 31 33 37 15 15 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -0. -5. -9. -9. -5. -2. -0. 0. 3. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. 2. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.3 58.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.3% 6.2% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 23 27 32 36 40 48 53 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 27 26 24 22 21 25 30 34 38 46 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 24 23 21 19 18 22 27 31 35 43 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT