* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 89 86 80 70 64 58 55 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 92 89 86 80 70 64 58 55 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 87 84 80 73 68 65 61 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 17 22 26 25 17 20 21 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 0 -1 -2 -1 13 17 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 328 347 358 5 13 347 251 244 236 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.7 24.4 23.1 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 138 133 134 129 124 104 96 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -49.4 -49.1 -49.1 -49.1 -49.2 -48.5 -49.4 -50.0 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 64 65 65 59 50 45 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 29 30 27 26 28 29 32 37 40 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -9 -1 1 44 75 88 79 62 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -25 -15 -18 -40 14 34 43 74 162 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 17 20 13 21 -11 -53 -37 -22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 730 787 856 907 923 946 989 845 752 834 1042 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.3 33.9 34.5 35.1 36.1 37.2 39.1 41.2 43.6 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.7 67.7 66.6 65.1 63.5 60.1 56.1 51.8 47.5 43.3 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 16 18 20 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 12 14 12 15 8 6 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -15. -26. -37. -49. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -7. -2. 3. 10. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -1. 5. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -15. -25. -31. -37. -40. -37. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.6 68.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 593.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 7( 31) 4( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 92 89 86 80 70 64 58 55 58 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 91 88 82 72 66 60 57 60 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 82 72 66 60 57 60 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 69 63 57 54 57 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 66 60 54 51 54 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 92 83 77 74 67 61 55 52 55 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 92 89 80 74 70 64 58 55 58 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS