* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 109 108 105 97 84 71 62 55 49 45 47 45 45 50 54 52 V (KT) LAND 105 94 67 61 53 40 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 111 71 55 61 58 53 46 40 35 32 29 27 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 22 22 25 24 28 32 45 42 32 36 33 31 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 1 0 4 4 4 5 -2 0 1 3 0 -7 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 200 209 204 213 221 218 229 235 256 250 261 258 256 247 244 238 239 SST (C) 31.2 31.3 30.3 30.2 29.4 29.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 173 174 173 173 160 167 147 148 146 145 148 151 156 155 153 155 155 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -48.7 -48.6 -48.6 -48.5 -48.4 -48.5 -49.0 -49.6 -50.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 7 6 3 4 2 3 3 4 5 5 7 8 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 66 61 55 52 44 36 34 35 33 32 40 34 29 26 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 28 26 25 22 20 19 18 19 20 19 20 22 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 61 41 36 34 31 28 -14 7 28 18 19 26 30 30 42 -12 14 200 MB DIV 55 36 72 87 62 29 -9 -16 -16 -7 -44 42 4 57 -17 5 -23 700-850 TADV 2 10 12 -6 -8 -14 -18 -9 -7 -11 -4 2 4 1 -5 6 6 LAND (KM) 164 -10 -55 4 3 140 344 486 655 734 768 832 956 1007 992 1000 1068 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.7 31.1 32.0 32.8 33.5 33.5 33.0 32.4 32.0 31.6 31.1 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 83.3 82.1 80.9 79.7 76.5 73.0 71.5 69.8 69.1 69.0 68.6 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 15 13 13 14 10 8 5 3 2 4 4 1 0 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 51 11 32 22 37 29 22 21 21 22 26 37 39 39 37 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 14 CX,CY: 2/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -1. -10. -20. -28. -38. -45. -48. -53. -56. -61. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -13. -10. -7. -3. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -19. -21. -20. -18. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. -0. -8. -21. -34. -43. -50. -56. -60. -58. -60. -60. -55. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 28.3 84.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 9.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.32 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 30.3% 21.9% 10.2% 9.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.4% 21.3% 14.3% 7.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 32.1% 1.4% 0.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.2% 17.7% 12.3% 6.8% 3.8% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 0( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 94 67 61 53 40 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 77 71 63 50 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 95 87 74 61 53 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 87 74 61 53 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 73 60 52 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 IN 6HR 105 94 85 79 76 69 56 48 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT