* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 50 52 50 47 44 42 42 44 51 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 50 52 50 47 44 42 42 44 51 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 41 41 39 37 35 33 33 34 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 6 4 2 8 12 21 20 19 23 25 17 8 11 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 -3 4 4 -4 0 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 83 80 96 143 180 163 172 185 206 213 205 236 295 325 23 145 254 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 129 130 129 132 126 123 121 122 116 118 117 114 111 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 65 69 70 71 76 70 64 56 51 47 45 44 42 41 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 12 10 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 113 112 115 105 95 93 68 61 9 -42 -80 -88 -81 -50 -34 3 12 200 MB DIV 23 60 84 82 76 107 24 14 31 -25 25 -27 -9 -31 -33 -19 -20 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 0 3 9 17 9 5 1 -2 -10 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 574 673 763 835 918 1079 1130 1191 1318 1475 1568 1616 1562 1433 1295 1178 1096 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.0 18.2 19.7 21.5 23.4 25.9 27.9 29.4 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.8 23.7 24.5 25.1 25.8 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.6 30.7 31.0 30.8 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 13 12 9 5 5 6 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 5 6 5 15 16 11 4 2 0 4 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 411 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 33. 33. 32. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 20. 25. 27. 25. 22. 19. 17. 17. 19. 26. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 22.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.1% 10.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 26.8% 14.1% 6.2% 3.1% 10.6% 6.7% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 14.6% 8.2% 4.1% 1.0% 3.7% 6.8% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 50 52 50 47 44 42 42 44 51 60 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 42 47 49 47 44 41 39 39 41 48 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 37 42 44 42 39 36 34 34 36 43 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 29 34 36 34 31 28 26 26 28 35 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT