* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902023 08/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 48 57 61 64 65 66 65 63 59 55 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 48 57 61 64 65 66 65 63 59 55 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 36 42 46 50 55 61 65 66 62 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 16 12 11 10 10 9 14 8 11 14 18 23 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 0 -1 2 6 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 71 75 75 67 53 41 39 9 344 359 346 302 277 283 267 273 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 160 162 161 157 152 145 140 139 141 143 141 138 134 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 64 62 62 65 64 64 64 63 61 64 65 64 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 48 56 61 64 66 56 38 24 11 -1 0 -9 -12 -16 -30 -45 -42 200 MB DIV 62 52 42 36 38 65 70 90 100 35 36 -12 -27 -7 34 -10 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1401 1407 1417 1425 1430 1443 1413 1363 1315 1295 1313 1365 1359 1313 1241 1191 1154 LAT (DEG N) 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.3 7.0 7.9 8.9 9.7 10.2 10.4 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.9 153.7 154.7 155.7 156.8 158.8 160.2 161.2 162.2 163.1 164.0 165.0 166.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 32 63 74 68 54 44 31 17 15 21 30 33 26 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 5. 14. 26. 37. 45. 50. 54. 56. 58. 57. 54. 51. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 23. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. 38. 34. 30. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 6.6 152.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902023 INVEST 08/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 13.2% 2.7% 1.5% 0.4% 2.7% 1.8% 20.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 10.3% 5.6% 0.5% 0.1% 7.1% 5.9% 6.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902023 INVEST 08/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##