* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 36 34 33 36 39 37 36 35 34 35 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 36 34 33 36 39 37 36 35 34 35 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 33 30 28 28 27 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 25 27 25 24 35 33 28 26 29 24 27 36 31 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 -1 0 0 -4 2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 19 20 33 49 50 36 33 24 6 329 331 317 299 296 300 298 278 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.4 27.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 157 157 154 153 147 150 143 136 134 137 130 123 119 127 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -53.0 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 4 3 4 4 6 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 62 62 63 64 60 59 56 55 51 48 47 49 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 9 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -65 -26 -11 1 -13 28 25 66 79 79 78 87 80 84 74 70 200 MB DIV 8 22 10 5 -9 8 -7 56 52 -7 -33 33 -6 -16 -3 1 43 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 2 4 4 -12 -4 -6 -3 -2 0 -3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1059 1138 1211 1274 1355 1535 1684 1679 1691 1681 1656 1640 1681 1770 1953 1995 1696 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.4 30.5 31.3 31.6 31.7 32.1 32.8 33.7 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 58.6 58.3 58.0 57.5 55.9 53.6 51.3 49.4 47.7 45.9 43.8 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 8 10 11 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 33 35 32 32 13 17 17 12 11 10 6 2 1 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 4. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 6. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.0 58.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.3% 8.5% 7.4% 4.5% 7.4% 0.0% 6.8% Logistic: 2.9% 7.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.2% 4.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.5% 0.7% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 36 34 33 36 39 37 36 35 34 35 38 38 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 33 31 30 33 36 34 33 32 31 32 35 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 28 26 25 28 31 29 28 27 26 27 30 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 18 17 20 23 21 20 19 18 19 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT