* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 88 82 76 67 61 56 44 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 92 88 82 76 67 61 56 44 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 88 83 79 71 67 62 49 35 24 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 23 26 27 16 20 44 62 53 44 27 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -2 -1 0 10 16 1 -9 -3 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 342 358 13 19 8 284 256 231 236 237 244 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.1 24.6 24.0 22.6 17.4 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 134 131 135 132 132 128 105 98 89 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.5 -49.3 -49.3 -49.4 -49.2 -48.8 -48.2 -48.7 -50.7 -53.6 -56.2 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 64 64 65 60 53 38 32 36 47 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 26 24 26 30 27 19 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -9 -4 0 18 73 84 104 50 -77 -75 -104 -163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -9 -16 -34 -2 24 49 62 35 12 27 22 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 17 14 8 19 -3 7 -6 -48 -27 -20 -10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 781 878 883 923 951 977 994 881 740 756 765 726 778 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.1 34.8 35.1 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.8 41.5 43.5 44.9 47.3 50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.7 66.3 64.9 63.5 62.1 58.6 55.0 51.5 47.2 44.5 43.4 43.0 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 15 15 18 17 11 10 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 11 14 11 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -16. -27. -38. -51. -62. -69. -74. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 5. 14. 20. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -3. -8. -20. -35. -44. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -19. -28. -34. -39. -51. -64. -79. -85. -87. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 33.3 67.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 587.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 5( 30) 3( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 92 88 82 76 67 61 56 44 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 90 84 78 69 63 58 46 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 85 79 70 64 59 47 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 70 64 59 47 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 67 61 56 44 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 92 83 77 74 68 62 57 45 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 92 88 79 73 69 63 58 46 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS