* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 42 46 44 40 35 33 30 28 30 36 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 42 46 44 40 35 33 30 28 30 36 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 37 35 32 30 27 24 22 22 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 7 10 20 23 24 29 36 35 20 16 11 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 4 -1 0 1 6 5 9 3 SHEAR DIR 63 71 100 136 147 160 172 203 206 220 231 265 312 330 323 256 269 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.9 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 133 136 135 131 128 119 119 116 114 117 115 110 113 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 70 69 72 75 74 68 58 54 52 51 48 48 40 40 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 12 13 14 14 14 11 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 115 105 94 96 82 58 33 -12 -53 -66 -84 -82 -90 -80 -53 -64 200 MB DIV 56 90 77 84 89 78 8 28 -13 -49 -11 -10 -66 -40 2 -23 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -4 -1 1 2 7 14 7 6 2 2 -13 -6 -14 1 LAND (KM) 647 735 803 877 945 1047 1088 1192 1346 1451 1512 1500 1388 1191 940 709 511 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.8 20.7 22.7 25.0 27.0 28.5 29.6 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.5 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.4 29.6 30.1 30.1 29.4 28.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 12 9 7 6 7 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 8 11 10 20 11 5 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 32. 32. 32. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. -24. -27. -29. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 19. 15. 10. 8. 5. 3. 5. 11. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 23.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 16.1% 10.7% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 21.7% 9.8% 2.7% 1.2% 7.4% 5.9% 3.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 13.4% 7.1% 3.0% 0.4% 2.9% 6.5% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 33 38 42 46 44 40 35 33 30 28 30 36 42 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 39 43 41 37 32 30 27 25 27 33 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 35 39 37 33 28 26 23 21 23 29 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 31 29 25 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT