* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 78 73 67 65 61 54 44 42 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 78 73 67 65 61 54 44 42 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 87 84 79 75 71 71 67 53 41 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 23 25 26 23 16 22 44 54 53 37 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -2 0 2 16 14 4 -5 -4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 359 14 13 18 325 273 250 236 231 223 220 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.9 24.5 24.7 22.2 20.6 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 131 134 134 135 132 125 103 104 89 82 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -48.9 -49.2 -48.3 -48.3 -48.6 -49.8 -50.9 -52.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 64 65 63 55 44 38 42 43 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 26 26 26 33 36 34 29 27 24 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 0 10 42 83 94 128 84 35 -12 -14 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -24 -51 -24 22 41 84 72 55 35 27 7 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 17 13 19 29 -1 -15 7 -18 -16 -23 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 856 916 935 969 974 1004 979 852 748 721 762 865 1026 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.6 36.7 37.8 39.2 41.2 43.4 45.7 48.0 50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.6 65.2 63.8 62.2 60.7 57.2 53.6 50.6 47.6 45.1 43.0 41.1 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 11 13 13 9 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -24. -35. -46. -57. -64. -69. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. 5. 14. 19. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 2. 6. 4. -5. -9. -15. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. -25. -29. -36. -46. -48. -53. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.9 66.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 554.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 4( 23) 3( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 83 78 73 67 65 61 54 44 42 37 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 85 80 75 69 67 63 56 46 44 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 81 76 70 68 64 57 47 45 40 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 69 67 63 56 46 44 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 63 59 52 42 40 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 65 63 59 52 42 40 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 87 83 74 68 64 62 58 51 41 39 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS