* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 53 50 47 41 35 30 31 32 31 33 36 35 33 29 27 V (KT) LAND 65 50 42 42 40 34 27 23 24 25 24 25 29 28 25 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 65 49 41 41 38 33 28 24 22 21 19 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 33 28 29 31 21 27 35 38 35 40 36 29 26 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 1 4 3 0 2 -2 0 3 -1 -3 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 202 211 221 223 223 226 242 258 246 251 241 235 222 207 195 218 241 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 29.3 29.3 29.8 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 159 159 168 142 138 133 135 143 148 148 143 144 145 139 134 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.6 -48.6 -48.6 -48.4 -48.5 -49.1 -49.8 -50.4 -51.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 2 1 3 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 57 50 51 48 39 37 37 36 36 40 45 45 49 54 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 24 24 23 20 19 20 20 19 18 21 23 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 37 41 29 -5 9 27 24 24 24 29 27 41 50 41 11 200 MB DIV 72 88 40 34 17 0 -17 -25 6 4 30 16 38 40 20 -22 -7 700-850 TADV 10 -8 -14 -28 -24 -32 -8 -4 -6 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) -102 -14 -40 32 96 353 603 758 853 935 1026 1130 1151 1171 1199 1161 1013 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.6 33.6 33.9 34.2 33.9 33.0 32.4 32.0 31.7 31.7 32.2 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 81.0 79.5 77.6 75.7 72.5 70.0 68.5 67.6 66.8 65.7 64.2 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 12 9 6 4 4 6 8 8 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 34 25 23 42 19 15 13 17 22 27 19 19 24 23 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -8. -11. -11. -10. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -15. -17. -20. -22. -18. -16. -16. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -15. -18. -24. -30. -35. -34. -33. -34. -32. -29. -30. -32. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.5 82.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.12 0.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.50 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.9% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 35.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 50 42 42 40 34 27 23 24 25 24 25 29 28 25 22 20 18HR AGO 65 64 56 56 54 48 41 37 38 39 38 39 43 42 39 36 34 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 59 53 46 42 43 44 43 44 48 47 44 41 39 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 47 40 36 37 38 37 38 42 41 38 35 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT