* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 48 49 50 46 44 42 42 42 46 53 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 48 49 50 46 44 42 42 42 46 53 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 36 34 33 32 32 34 38 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 11 11 12 14 15 15 17 20 20 14 9 3 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 1 1 3 0 5 2 2 7 0 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 70 75 88 129 132 158 170 206 210 220 251 282 268 300 192 253 211 SST (C) 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.5 25.7 25.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 134 137 136 133 130 125 115 113 111 108 111 111 114 113 113 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 74 77 74 67 59 55 48 48 43 37 33 35 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 15 16 17 14 12 9 7 6 5 3 3 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 119 108 99 98 94 69 61 13 -25 -50 -35 -42 -63 -46 -36 -30 -39 200 MB DIV 82 72 68 87 94 58 19 0 -17 0 -9 -44 -43 -20 -18 -29 -19 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -1 0 2 4 11 12 0 -3 -16 -18 -21 -3 4 5 LAND (KM) 732 819 879 934 984 1024 1046 1141 1246 1286 1227 1048 777 584 509 520 608 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.5 19.3 21.4 23.6 26.0 27.5 28.1 27.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.3 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.1 27.1 25.2 22.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 11 6 6 11 11 7 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 11 11 10 19 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 31. 32. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -6. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. -25. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 24. 25. 21. 19. 17. 17. 17. 21. 28. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 24.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 17.0% 11.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 29.8% 14.1% 5.8% 3.3% 12.1% 11.9% 8.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% 3.5% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 17.6% 9.0% 4.2% 1.1% 5.0% 9.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/30/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 42 48 49 50 46 44 42 42 42 46 53 62 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 39 45 46 47 43 41 39 39 39 43 50 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 33 39 40 41 37 35 33 33 33 37 44 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 30 31 32 28 26 24 24 24 28 35 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT