* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 30 28 28 27 26 27 30 34 40 48 60 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 30 28 28 27 26 27 30 34 40 48 60 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 22 20 18 16 16 16 18 21 24 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 26 27 23 34 33 28 18 9 14 23 28 24 41 42 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 9 -1 2 3 7 9 7 1 -3 -4 -1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 28 37 45 48 49 23 11 351 336 287 233 186 180 191 220 233 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.9 27.4 26.2 23.4 19.6 15.4 13.2 11.7 11.5 10.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 154 152 154 149 153 132 121 100 82 73 70 71 71 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -50.0 -51.6 -53.8 -54.0 -55.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 61 62 62 54 42 45 51 56 58 58 68 75 75 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 4 -7 -6 40 132 143 98 60 38 -31 -39 26 1 -41 N/A 200 MB DIV 15 7 -18 4 3 10 66 54 24 79 76 39 45 42 -54 -63 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 3 7 1 5 -32 -11 -25 -9 13 12 1 -11 38 19 N/A LAND (KM) 1199 1268 1349 1448 1550 1584 1437 1291 1231 1329 1482 1481 1076 638 100 353 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.2 30.8 32.3 33.9 36.1 38.9 42.7 47.1 51.4 55.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.6 58.4 57.9 57.2 56.2 53.5 50.2 46.6 42.3 37.1 33.0 31.8 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 15 17 20 25 28 24 20 20 27 29 28 N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 36 30 29 30 14 18 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 21. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 4. 10. 18. 30. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.3 58.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 9.3% 6.3% 6.1% 3.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.4% 2.1% 1.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 33 30 28 28 27 26 27 30 34 40 48 60 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 28 26 26 25 24 25 28 32 38 46 58 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 24 22 22 21 20 21 24 28 34 42 54 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT