* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 80 76 71 65 60 57 51 45 37 33 31 28 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 80 76 71 65 60 57 51 45 37 33 31 28 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 81 77 73 70 69 63 51 42 36 32 30 29 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 26 27 25 16 22 25 42 45 44 32 26 25 23 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 4 17 10 0 -2 -2 1 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 11 12 12 11 289 251 233 229 216 211 192 157 147 124 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.2 25.8 25.3 22.8 22.1 19.3 15.1 13.8 13.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 134 133 132 133 128 114 109 91 88 79 71 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.5 -49.5 -49.1 -49.5 -48.9 -48.3 -48.2 -48.8 -49.2 -49.3 -50.0 -51.2 -52.7 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.2 1.9 2.3 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 63 58 49 40 38 45 42 49 53 63 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 27 26 25 27 33 37 35 31 27 24 22 19 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 11 44 69 77 105 92 77 45 45 24 5 -5 96 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -38 -21 29 8 49 103 81 78 62 53 22 36 40 50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 5 26 29 -3 0 -29 0 -5 -11 -7 -4 -15 -9 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 911 936 959 957 976 983 886 748 746 809 890 1035 1260 1251 1001 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.9 35.3 35.8 36.3 37.5 38.7 40.6 42.4 44.1 45.9 48.4 51.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.2 63.7 62.2 60.6 59.0 55.5 52.1 49.0 45.8 43.3 41.2 38.8 35.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 13 17 16 13 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 13 13 13 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -26. -37. -49. -59. -66. -71. -71. -68. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -1. 6. 15. 21. 27. 31. 33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 6. 3. -3. -11. -15. -19. -25. -33. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -30. -33. -39. -45. -53. -57. -59. -62. -67. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.4 65.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 7( 18) 4( 21) 2( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 85 80 76 71 65 60 57 51 45 37 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 80 75 69 64 61 55 49 41 37 35 32 27 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 77 71 66 63 57 51 43 39 37 34 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 69 64 61 55 49 41 37 35 32 27 DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 60 57 51 45 37 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 85 76 70 67 63 58 55 49 43 35 31 29 26 21 DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT