* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/31/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 41 38 36 33 28 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 46 46 44 42 38 34 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 46 43 38 35 30 26 22 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 31 29 28 24 20 31 43 42 55 57 56 48 37 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 3 0 5 -1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -1 1 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 215 224 226 227 228 244 247 252 251 248 240 239 238 238 231 250 256 SST (C) 30.5 29.3 29.2 29.8 28.9 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.8 28.0 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 174 159 157 168 152 139 134 135 142 145 143 134 135 128 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.6 -48.5 -48.5 -48.3 -48.8 -49.4 -50.1 -50.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 1 3 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 57 52 49 48 43 37 35 36 37 37 38 39 41 42 44 42 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 24 24 24 22 20 18 18 17 19 19 19 21 21 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 37 30 6 13 23 31 27 31 22 25 16 9 13 -8 -36 200 MB DIV 88 36 27 9 5 0 -16 -25 -14 49 6 10 2 -9 -27 -7 0 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -22 -25 -35 -20 -11 -11 -9 -4 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) -20 -8 27 107 244 524 728 853 927 994 1095 1087 1046 1026 1008 961 917 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.4 34.1 34.1 34.1 33.4 32.5 32.0 31.7 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.9 79.2 77.5 75.6 73.8 70.7 68.8 67.6 66.9 65.9 64.1 62.3 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 11 7 4 4 7 9 9 5 1 1 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 22 45 47 15 13 17 22 23 16 10 16 13 16 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -13. -12. -8. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -0. 1. -1. -5. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. -17. -20. -20. -17. -18. -21. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -14. -17. -19. -22. -27. -30. -30. -30. -29. -29. -30. -32. -37. -41. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.7 80.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.05 0.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 46 46 44 42 38 34 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 50 46 42 38 38 39 39 39 38 36 32 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 43 39 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 39 35 31 31 32 32 32 31 29 25 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT