* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 30 28 27 31 34 34 34 34 31 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 30 28 27 31 34 34 34 34 31 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 24 23 22 20 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 26 27 32 37 37 28 27 30 19 23 32 29 33 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 10 5 0 0 2 2 -4 -1 -3 -5 -2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 38 54 54 51 42 33 20 11 2 349 342 319 309 306 296 275 273 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 157 150 148 141 137 135 132 131 129 124 123 125 118 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 62 64 63 61 60 60 59 58 59 58 56 59 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 4 3 5 9 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -5 7 -8 -12 -3 27 17 45 35 24 31 21 36 34 27 32 -2 200 MB DIV 0 11 15 9 -8 6 53 45 -23 -16 -14 6 -11 -25 0 5 -8 700-850 TADV -1 2 5 2 1 -2 -3 -6 -1 2 1 1 3 4 6 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1205 1248 1314 1400 1478 1645 1786 1797 1776 1723 1652 1566 1526 1534 1573 1705 1978 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.7 30.3 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.8 32.7 33.8 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.2 57.9 57.3 56.5 55.5 53.3 51.3 49.6 48.3 47.3 46.4 45.5 44.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 8 9 10 9 8 7 5 6 6 7 6 5 8 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 33 33 31 17 17 14 12 11 11 9 7 5 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. 3. 7. 7. 7. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -2. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.2 58.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.9% 5.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 30 28 27 31 34 34 34 34 31 28 28 29 31 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 28 26 25 29 32 32 32 32 29 26 26 27 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 24 22 21 25 28 28 28 28 25 22 22 23 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 16 15 19 22 22 22 22 19 16 16 17 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT