* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 76 74 70 65 59 54 47 42 39 33 28 26 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 76 74 70 65 59 54 47 42 39 33 28 26 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 78 75 72 70 66 56 45 37 33 30 28 29 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 29 21 17 24 37 45 48 44 30 22 13 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 4 14 8 8 0 -6 -1 -2 -1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 7 5 3 329 264 241 231 234 227 229 205 166 158 150 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.2 23.3 24.6 22.5 20.5 18.7 14.9 13.9 13.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 133 132 131 130 118 95 103 90 82 77 70 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.4 -49.1 -49.2 -49.2 -48.4 -48.3 -48.4 -49.0 -49.9 -51.0 -51.4 -52.5 -51.9 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 62 60 54 41 36 39 41 44 48 61 70 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 27 26 31 34 35 33 29 26 23 19 17 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 44 72 78 78 90 62 31 -1 2 0 44 103 135 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 5 35 21 49 71 88 94 33 39 34 30 18 53 54 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 25 21 -1 -3 -27 -21 -7 -10 -16 -5 -12 -9 -7 -15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 939 963 957 967 967 925 765 688 734 833 968 1160 1398 1188 849 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.3 35.8 36.4 37.0 38.3 40.0 41.8 43.4 45.0 46.7 48.8 51.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.9 62.3 60.6 59.0 57.4 54.1 50.6 47.7 44.9 42.4 39.9 37.1 33.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 14 15 15 13 13 12 13 15 16 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 13 8 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -15. -25. -36. -47. -56. -63. -66. -66. -63. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -2. 7. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 5. 6. 2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -25. -29. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -11. -15. -20. -26. -31. -38. -43. -46. -52. -57. -59. -60. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.7 63.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 9.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.6% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 4( 18) 2( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 81 76 74 70 65 59 54 47 42 39 33 28 26 25 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 79 77 73 68 62 57 50 45 42 36 31 29 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 75 70 64 59 52 47 44 38 33 31 30 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 66 60 55 48 43 40 34 29 27 26 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 55 50 43 38 35 29 24 22 21 DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT