* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 43 36 30 28 27 28 25 21 18 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 43 36 30 28 27 28 25 21 18 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 45 43 37 32 28 26 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 29 27 25 20 22 32 37 43 48 47 48 50 47 36 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 0 3 2 -1 2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 223 226 228 227 232 246 246 247 244 235 231 215 212 209 217 209 227 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 27.8 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 168 148 140 135 135 139 144 146 144 142 132 137 129 130 125 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -48.5 -48.4 -48.2 -48.4 -48.9 -49.7 -50.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 3 2 2 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 45 41 36 37 38 38 39 41 42 41 41 38 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 24 23 21 19 18 18 20 20 18 18 20 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 21 2 -3 25 42 36 37 49 37 25 46 41 31 10 -14 200 MB DIV 32 31 8 0 1 0 -14 -1 29 43 6 23 20 31 -2 15 6 700-850 TADV -20 -24 -28 -43 -32 -11 -9 -6 -2 5 0 4 -1 0 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 12 81 140 279 420 657 821 885 949 1025 1100 1121 1093 1046 1002 916 788 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.9 34.2 34.0 33.7 32.9 32.0 31.6 31.6 31.9 32.5 33.2 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.8 77.0 75.1 73.5 71.8 69.4 68.0 67.5 66.7 65.6 64.4 63.1 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 9 5 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 20 66 34 17 13 16 21 24 24 17 16 10 17 13 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -20. -20. -17. -24. -27. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -20. -22. -23. -22. -25. -29. -32. -32. -39. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.6 78.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.7% 9.1% 6.2% 0.0% 8.8% 8.8% 6.8% Logistic: 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 46 43 36 30 28 27 28 25 21 18 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 43 36 30 28 27 28 25 21 18 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 34 28 26 25 26 23 19 16 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 30 24 22 21 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT