* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 08/31/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 48 50 49 50 48 46 46 47 50 57 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 48 50 49 50 48 46 46 47 50 57 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 37 37 36 35 35 35 35 35 37 41 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 6 6 7 12 9 6 12 17 17 13 3 3 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 2 3 -1 6 3 1 0 0 2 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 93 77 95 131 144 170 193 205 184 254 303 327 358 39 351 107 72 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.2 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 136 132 129 126 117 115 115 112 112 114 107 106 107 110 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 74 78 78 78 71 60 54 48 48 45 37 38 35 36 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 18 20 19 17 13 12 10 8 8 7 6 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 102 104 98 86 73 60 24 -2 -45 -43 -50 -67 -66 -57 -64 -70 -79 200 MB DIV 87 105 128 110 72 38 -1 -25 -11 -19 -4 -27 -15 -5 -24 -21 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 0 0 5 11 13 5 1 1 -1 -7 -5 -4 0 3 LAND (KM) 819 879 923 958 992 994 1100 1264 1385 1453 1436 1348 1216 1110 1102 1199 1304 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.6 20.8 23.0 25.3 27.0 28.0 28.4 28.4 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.1 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.5 28.7 29.4 29.7 29.3 28.3 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 11 11 13 11 7 4 3 6 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 11 9 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -20. -19. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 25. 24. 25. 23. 21. 21. 22. 25. 32. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 25.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 08/31/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 16.7% 11.1% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 10.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.3% 3.8% 5.2% 5.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 10.4% 5.0% 2.4% 0.1% 1.6% 6.1% 1.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 08/31/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 43 48 50 49 50 48 46 46 47 50 57 66 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 40 45 47 46 47 45 43 43 44 47 54 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 34 39 41 40 41 39 37 37 38 41 48 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 31 30 31 29 27 27 28 31 38 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT