* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 78 75 73 67 58 52 43 41 34 29 23 22 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 78 75 73 67 58 52 43 41 34 29 23 22 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 79 77 75 71 62 51 41 36 33 31 29 29 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 31 23 18 19 22 30 20 17 23 25 20 25 17 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -2 2 6 18 14 13 5 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 6 2 340 283 251 222 206 194 209 190 188 163 179 183 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.4 24.1 23.0 20.6 19.3 19.3 17.9 15.8 15.0 14.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 133 131 129 132 102 96 83 75 75 75 71 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.0 -49.2 -49.4 -49.0 -48.5 -49.2 -48.9 -48.9 -48.4 -49.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.7 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 60 60 50 39 42 45 52 50 48 56 62 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 26 28 33 34 34 31 30 27 23 19 17 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 44 77 88 76 81 64 15 9 0 13 11 42 51 65 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 26 12 34 41 95 99 140 102 63 48 60 44 40 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 27 2 -2 -9 -35 -32 -27 -19 -9 1 0 4 13 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 984 958 957 952 937 803 690 851 1153 1309 1362 1521 1211 1065 885 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.1 37.8 39.5 41.9 44.3 46.2 47.1 47.6 48.8 51.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.5 60.8 59.2 57.5 55.9 51.6 47.5 42.6 37.6 35.3 34.5 32.2 27.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 17 19 21 21 15 6 7 14 15 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 15 9 9 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -15. -26. -38. -49. -58. -64. -67. -67. -64. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -7. -2. 4. 12. 19. 23. 28. 31. 32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 5. 6. 0. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -32. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -18. -27. -33. -42. -44. -51. -56. -62. -63. -67. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.0 62.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 4( 19) 3( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 81 78 75 73 67 58 52 43 41 34 29 23 22 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 81 78 76 70 61 55 46 44 37 32 26 25 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 76 70 61 55 46 44 37 32 26 25 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 67 58 52 43 41 34 29 23 22 18 DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 51 45 36 34 27 22 16 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT