* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 08/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 47 44 38 31 29 28 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 47 44 38 31 29 28 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 45 42 36 33 32 31 29 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 25 25 26 21 19 14 22 34 35 48 50 49 42 33 22 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 4 3 0 3 -1 -2 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -9 -6 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 223 221 219 224 233 238 255 249 235 227 221 218 222 228 226 223 209 SST (C) 29.2 29.7 29.0 28.6 27.9 26.6 27.5 28.2 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.9 28.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 166 153 147 136 118 127 137 147 145 136 133 133 129 134 140 112 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.5 -48.3 -48.5 -48.8 -49.3 -50.0 -50.5 -51.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 47 41 40 36 38 39 38 39 38 34 32 29 33 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 24 23 20 18 19 20 20 20 18 16 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 34 20 4 -4 24 37 52 49 48 48 49 45 38 26 3 -11 -17 200 MB DIV 28 20 -6 -10 -5 -2 -17 -15 60 46 15 -1 -14 -34 -16 -13 18 700-850 TADV -25 -30 -54 -34 -32 -10 -4 -5 -1 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 90 165 294 440 591 800 885 939 1010 1083 1082 1020 922 830 741 614 426 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.3 32.8 31.7 31.1 31.1 31.4 32.3 33.6 34.8 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.0 75.3 73.5 71.9 70.3 68.5 67.9 67.2 66.1 64.7 63.1 61.9 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 12 7 3 4 6 8 8 7 5 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 63 37 22 13 6 18 24 27 20 12 10 15 17 32 33 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 17 CX,CY: 17/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -13. -17. -21. -22. -25. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -21. -22. -23. -28. -32. -38. -38. -39. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.7 77.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.6% 10.7% 9.0% 6.7% 10.2% 9.9% 7.1% Logistic: 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.6% 4.0% 3.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.3% 2.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 08/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 47 44 38 31 29 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 47 44 38 31 29 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 35 28 26 25 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 31 24 22 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT