* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 08/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 29 29 28 25 23 20 20 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 29 29 28 25 23 20 20 21 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 24 29 32 34 39 30 27 34 23 24 37 44 42 46 58 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 11 8 1 2 -1 2 1 -6 -3 3 2 -2 0 1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 51 58 40 36 28 21 2 346 345 323 287 280 286 292 284 261 254 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.1 26.1 25.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 152 148 145 140 136 131 126 125 121 115 114 116 112 100 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 60 64 67 64 63 60 56 49 47 48 54 51 50 60 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 5 9 12 13 12 10 9 8 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 7 24 56 61 34 15 2 0 -20 -19 -3 -19 -23 8 24 200 MB DIV 6 7 0 0 6 50 39 2 -29 -22 0 -7 -39 -24 40 -2 79 700-850 TADV 5 1 4 7 -4 -6 -4 -2 1 2 5 5 2 2 9 15 13 LAND (KM) 1313 1385 1469 1551 1645 1746 1713 1644 1558 1462 1352 1310 1383 1515 1657 1912 1623 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.3 31.0 31.5 32.4 33.5 34.6 35.9 36.9 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 56.4 55.5 54.4 53.3 51.2 49.4 47.9 46.7 46.1 45.5 44.2 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 14 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 29 21 16 16 15 12 12 4 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -9. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -7. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.8 57.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.4% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 08/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 08/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 29 29 28 25 23 20 20 21 22 23 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 28 28 27 24 22 19 19 20 21 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 23 25 25 24 21 19 16 16 17 18 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 20 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT