* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 08/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 75 73 71 65 59 51 45 40 35 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 75 73 71 65 59 51 45 40 35 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 76 75 74 69 57 46 37 33 31 29 27 27 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 22 18 24 27 24 25 17 12 14 17 19 13 7 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 3 6 14 12 15 8 2 2 -1 -4 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 6 332 286 267 229 205 184 210 183 196 154 169 157 183 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.5 25.9 25.4 22.4 20.3 19.4 18.6 17.1 15.9 14.9 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 131 130 133 116 111 91 81 77 75 72 71 69 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.9 -49.0 -48.5 -48.3 -49.1 -49.0 -48.7 -48.3 -48.7 -50.4 -52.1 -52.6 -54.1 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.4 2.0 1.8 2.5 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 -0.2 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 60 54 46 42 46 52 55 46 55 57 64 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 34 31 28 25 21 15 12 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 82 91 85 73 81 48 27 5 7 10 46 22 39 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 6 33 51 77 99 131 111 100 41 13 31 43 43 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 4 -2 -5 -42 -50 -39 -25 -3 1 0 0 3 -2 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 973 972 972 948 891 724 747 921 1178 1386 1547 1379 1133 986 845 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.8 38.6 40.7 43.0 45.0 46.4 47.5 48.3 49.5 51.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 59.3 57.6 55.8 53.9 49.4 45.1 41.2 37.2 34.2 31.9 29.5 26.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 19 20 19 16 14 10 9 11 13 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 9 9 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -25. -36. -46. -54. -59. -62. -61. -58. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. 0. 6. 13. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 6. 2. -3. -8. -16. -25. -29. -38. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -15. -21. -29. -35. -40. -45. -52. -62. -66. -71. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.5 61.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.25 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 8.3% 6.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 08/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 2( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 75 73 71 65 59 51 45 40 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 73 67 61 53 47 42 37 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 72 66 60 52 46 41 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 62 56 48 42 37 32 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT