* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 09/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 29 31 33 33 31 27 24 21 19 18 20 21 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 29 31 33 33 31 27 24 21 19 18 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 26 25 23 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 27 32 34 36 25 32 40 39 55 60 67 70 65 61 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 0 1 2 -1 5 -1 -7 -2 -1 -2 -7 -8 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 55 45 34 28 27 15 340 312 309 285 274 274 282 287 281 279 285 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.9 25.5 24.8 24.8 23.7 23.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 152 147 145 145 142 133 127 124 123 109 104 105 99 97 103 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -50.7 -50.0 -49.9 -50.8 -50.9 -52.0 -53.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 64 68 66 65 59 55 48 47 45 46 47 46 51 51 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 6 11 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 31 61 75 68 33 23 -13 -35 -61 -79 -93 -82 -61 -16 21 200 MB DIV 14 1 5 20 54 23 42 -19 -18 -6 -9 -4 -1 38 8 3 9 700-850 TADV 0 4 4 -6 -10 -7 -5 -2 2 8 9 10 8 15 12 7 -1 LAND (KM) 1395 1473 1560 1648 1737 1652 1545 1421 1291 1168 1090 1124 1261 1453 1771 1548 1063 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.5 31.0 31.9 33.1 34.5 36.0 37.5 39.0 40.0 40.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 55.6 54.6 53.6 52.6 50.6 49.0 47.8 46.9 46.1 44.7 42.6 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 10 14 19 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 21 15 15 17 17 10 11 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 56.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 09/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.8% 5.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 09/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 09/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 29 29 31 33 33 31 27 24 21 19 18 20 21 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 28 30 32 32 30 26 23 20 18 17 19 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 25 27 29 29 27 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 21 23 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT