* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 51 46 42 40 38 31 22 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 51 46 42 40 38 31 22 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 52 49 47 47 47 43 36 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 11 8 17 31 41 54 60 64 59 56 32 31 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 1 0 -1 -2 0 2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -11 -6 -7 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 217 213 215 206 208 256 244 229 221 217 220 221 213 206 201 202 227 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.0 26.7 28.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.9 27.6 26.4 24.9 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 141 125 121 136 150 153 150 148 138 131 125 121 130 117 104 76 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.8 -49.0 -49.1 -49.4 -50.2 -50.2 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 53 49 46 42 42 42 38 38 38 37 35 36 33 38 38 41 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 17 18 20 21 19 17 15 16 14 12 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 1 25 31 39 47 46 55 55 55 52 59 60 21 14 16 49 200 MB DIV -14 2 16 -15 -10 -10 1 52 35 2 12 -10 -14 -19 -9 26 5 700-850 TADV -35 -43 -31 -18 -13 -8 -7 -1 -3 -3 -8 -8 -5 0 4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 400 546 694 810 927 1039 1090 1175 1207 1117 969 840 732 624 527 407 223 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.9 32.4 31.9 31.3 30.9 31.0 31.6 32.6 34.1 36.0 37.5 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.3 70.8 69.3 68.2 67.2 66.1 65.4 64.0 62.5 61.1 59.8 59.5 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 10 8 3 5 7 9 10 9 6 5 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 6 7 21 31 33 22 22 14 14 8 5 24 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 20 CX,CY: 20/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. -11. -16. -20. -19. -22. -26. -31. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -17. -24. -33. -38. -39. -42. -45. -48. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.4 72.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.7% 12.4% 11.2% 8.7% 13.1% 12.0% 6.7% Logistic: 1.9% 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.1% 5.4% 4.2% 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 53 51 46 42 40 38 31 22 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 50 45 41 39 37 30 21 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 43 39 37 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 38 34 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT