* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 09/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 41 43 42 40 40 44 42 41 41 41 46 51 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 41 43 42 40 40 44 42 41 41 41 46 51 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 38 36 34 33 33 33 33 33 34 37 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 11 14 17 12 11 7 10 15 17 12 9 11 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 4 5 2 5 5 4 2 3 2 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 128 137 141 158 180 159 169 191 234 295 338 27 84 122 159 201 303 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 135 130 126 119 117 117 116 116 114 112 110 113 118 118 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 65 60 53 47 46 42 39 33 32 31 32 33 36 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 18 15 12 10 10 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 82 89 76 60 32 -21 -32 -36 -37 -55 -65 -80 -74 -82 -75 -50 200 MB DIV 98 65 69 45 25 18 -9 -20 5 -11 -37 -16 -57 -26 -19 -4 6 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 4 4 11 10 11 0 1 -1 -2 -10 -5 2 2 8 LAND (KM) 1139 1205 1218 1216 1233 1330 1439 1542 1603 1592 1476 1314 1208 1249 1429 1641 1825 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.1 23.1 25.2 26.9 28.1 28.7 28.5 27.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.1 31.3 30.9 29.7 28.4 27.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 8 4 4 6 8 8 8 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 19 16 15 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -13. -14. -19. -22. -24. -27. -28. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 11. 10. 14. 12. 11. 11. 12. 16. 21. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 27.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 09/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 17.0% 11.6% 8.7% 6.4% 10.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 14.4% 7.2% 2.1% 0.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 11.5% 6.6% 3.7% 2.5% 4.4% 4.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 09/01/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 41 43 42 40 40 44 42 41 41 41 46 51 55 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 37 39 38 36 36 40 38 37 37 37 42 47 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 32 31 29 29 33 31 30 30 30 35 40 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 20 20 24 22 21 21 21 26 31 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT