* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL062023 09/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 35 38 37 35 30 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 35 38 37 35 30 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 20 20 19 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 29 33 38 31 28 30 26 14 19 33 46 50 42 40 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 1 -3 1 2 -3 1 0 3 2 0 0 -1 -1 -9 SHEAR DIR 47 41 31 28 27 15 357 347 353 333 282 264 262 262 282 280 298 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.2 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 150 147 142 141 139 139 131 124 116 113 108 99 95 92 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -51.4 -52.7 -54.0 -55.3 -55.8 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 64 64 65 67 66 67 62 53 46 47 52 53 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 11 12 15 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -21 9 -6 17 20 1 4 11 -28 -35 -16 -10 -71 -125 -155 200 MB DIV 1 3 11 51 52 32 -3 10 7 49 8 29 7 -27 -42 -28 -21 700-850 TADV 3 5 -1 -6 -3 -2 2 4 12 19 15 7 7 12 18 11 8 LAND (KM) 1406 1464 1524 1596 1662 1783 1737 1654 1527 1360 1282 1347 1516 1697 1905 1761 1632 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.5 31.2 32.1 33.4 35.3 37.0 38.0 38.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.6 54.8 54.0 53.2 52.5 51.2 50.0 49.0 48.3 47.0 44.6 41.6 38.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 9 12 13 13 13 13 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 21 19 18 16 15 16 13 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 8. 10. 7. 5. 1. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 8. 7. 5. -0. -3. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.0 55.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062023 GERT 09/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.7% 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062023 GERT 09/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062023 GERT 09/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 35 38 37 35 30 27 28 29 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 33 36 35 33 28 25 26 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 30 33 32 30 25 22 23 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 28 27 25 20 17 18 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT