* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 47 46 44 41 40 35 28 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 47 46 44 41 40 35 28 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 44 43 42 43 43 37 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 5 4 17 37 49 62 63 55 45 25 27 37 39 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 2 3 0 -1 2 -9 -6 -2 -7 -4 -5 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 210 213 221 227 269 241 233 224 221 219 229 229 233 223 229 210 209 SST (C) 28.1 26.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 124 123 136 152 154 151 143 133 127 128 124 133 133 130 129 100 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.9 -49.1 -49.4 -50.0 -50.0 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 50 46 43 42 44 44 42 38 37 33 29 28 30 34 31 34 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 18 20 21 20 17 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 22 34 47 50 51 47 69 77 60 27 -19 -52 -66 -57 -46 0 200 MB DIV 2 18 1 0 3 -4 33 75 16 8 -31 -17 -19 6 1 22 2 700-850 TADV -46 -33 -17 -8 -8 -3 -2 0 -13 -8 -6 -1 0 -2 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 575 705 835 930 1026 1106 1192 1170 1014 953 896 764 553 521 616 574 350 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.4 31.9 31.3 30.6 31.0 31.8 33.2 35.5 36.6 37.0 37.9 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.5 69.2 67.9 67.2 66.5 65.2 63.7 62.1 59.9 58.9 59.3 60.3 61.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 6 7 8 12 11 4 4 8 6 2 2 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 6 9 21 30 32 22 18 12 14 14 9 22 26 27 19 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -4. -3. -0. 2. 2. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -8. -14. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -15. -22. -31. -34. -38. -41. -44. -46. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.8 70.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.6% 11.5% 9.9% 8.3% 12.0% 11.7% 5.2% Logistic: 1.4% 3.4% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 4.9% 3.7% 2.8% 4.2% 3.9% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 47 47 46 44 41 40 35 28 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 47 45 42 41 36 29 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 43 40 39 34 27 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 37 34 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT