* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 09/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 34 32 35 35 35 36 37 39 41 46 50 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 34 32 35 35 35 36 37 39 41 46 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 32 30 29 28 28 28 29 30 32 35 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 11 13 14 13 9 10 7 9 15 18 16 14 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 7 5 1 3 2 2 7 8 0 -1 1 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 114 135 161 179 173 182 179 213 287 341 16 105 147 201 221 235 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.6 26.2 27.0 27.2 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 132 128 123 115 116 114 113 112 110 115 125 128 134 133 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 61 57 53 49 46 44 36 36 32 32 31 36 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 14 10 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 75 60 45 25 3 -52 -45 -54 -73 -79 -81 -43 -42 -17 -2 7 200 MB DIV 57 50 25 19 26 5 -16 -24 -23 -38 -48 -33 -27 -7 -3 5 6 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 5 7 15 6 2 -1 -11 -15 -13 -12 -3 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1183 1204 1209 1223 1245 1350 1446 1495 1464 1315 1127 1065 1142 1391 1712 2030 2108 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.9 24.1 25.9 27.2 27.6 27.1 25.6 23.8 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.8 30.4 30.5 30.0 28.6 27.2 27.0 28.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 8 4 4 9 10 9 12 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 17 16 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 9 11 34 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -31. -31. -32. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 16. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 28.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 09/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.1% 9.6% 7.6% 5.2% 9.1% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.7% 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 3.4% 3.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 09/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 33 34 32 35 35 35 36 37 39 41 46 50 53 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 31 32 30 33 33 33 34 35 37 39 44 48 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 25 28 28 28 29 30 32 34 39 43 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 19 22 22 22 23 24 26 28 33 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT