* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 09/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 59 54 47 40 33 28 30 27 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 59 54 47 40 33 28 30 27 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 57 53 44 36 30 27 26 27 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 31 33 33 33 37 30 29 24 17 5 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 16 15 7 8 4 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 255 232 230 223 206 199 215 212 217 178 303 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.0 25.6 23.3 22.8 20.1 19.5 17.3 16.7 16.4 15.9 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 128 114 97 94 82 79 72 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.1 -48.1 -48.6 -48.4 -48.6 -48.6 -48.7 -49.7 -51.4 -50.6 -50.5 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 46 41 43 45 49 46 55 61 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 30 32 34 32 33 32 28 24 22 18 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 54 53 63 54 13 -5 -32 -21 19 62 107 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 72 92 94 84 105 75 50 21 44 28 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -44 -51 -40 -37 -43 -35 -28 -12 -3 -1 0 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 869 827 718 639 626 753 1031 1329 1532 1334 1198 1085 977 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 39.2 40.2 41.3 42.4 44.7 46.6 47.8 49.1 50.0 50.6 51.3 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.6 54.5 52.4 50.1 47.9 43.7 39.1 34.9 31.5 29.1 27.4 26.0 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 19 17 14 11 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -22. -30. -37. -41. -45. -46. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 3. 9. 16. 22. 26. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 5. 7. 7. 1. -5. -9. -15. -18. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. -25. -32. -37. -35. -38. -40. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 38.2 56.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 61 59 54 47 40 33 28 30 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 56 49 42 35 30 32 29 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 54 47 40 33 28 30 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 43 36 29 24 26 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT