* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 48 47 44 39 32 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 48 48 47 44 39 32 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 45 45 45 46 43 37 32 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 3 10 21 36 50 50 53 51 43 35 30 29 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 4 5 1 0 3 -3 -3 0 0 -3 -7 -3 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 184 158 142 246 243 216 222 214 208 215 222 222 226 228 223 228 221 SST (C) 26.2 27.2 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.4 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 127 149 153 153 151 149 141 130 127 127 122 119 121 115 99 100 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.3 -49.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 48 48 46 44 40 39 36 35 32 32 31 33 37 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 20 19 19 20 20 17 16 13 12 10 8 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 37 47 52 47 59 73 86 86 78 38 4 -20 -29 -34 -21 -19 200 MB DIV 22 8 10 3 1 16 49 38 16 -1 -1 -14 1 -11 26 16 37 700-850 TADV -39 -20 -11 -9 -7 -6 1 -12 -15 -6 -3 0 4 4 5 2 -1 LAND (KM) 775 899 1023 1073 1124 1219 1279 1180 1125 1034 914 822 774 678 532 450 443 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 31.5 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.9 32.1 33.7 34.8 36.1 37.3 38.1 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 67.4 66.3 65.7 65.2 63.9 62.0 60.4 58.9 58.2 58.1 58.4 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 8 5 5 7 10 10 7 6 5 3 3 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 9 26 29 29 22 27 22 11 9 12 9 4 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -35. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -24. -33. -36. -40. -44. -48. -49. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.1 68.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 17.6% 12.1% 10.3% 8.8% 12.1% 11.4% 6.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.1% 4.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.6% 5.4% 4.1% 3.1% 4.3% 3.8% 2.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 48 48 48 47 44 39 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 49 48 45 40 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 45 42 37 30 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 36 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT