* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 09/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 30 29 30 29 30 30 31 33 36 40 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 30 29 30 29 30 30 31 33 36 40 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 29 27 26 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 12 14 15 12 11 12 15 9 17 17 19 21 21 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 5 4 0 5 4 1 6 10 0 2 0 -1 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 126 155 177 174 172 180 203 260 318 352 82 161 198 204 200 210 221 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 126 123 119 117 114 115 116 119 124 130 129 133 129 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 66 61 58 56 51 49 43 39 34 34 30 29 31 34 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 12 10 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 58 38 22 21 -35 -35 -50 -59 -88 -91 -65 -46 -26 -20 1 1 200 MB DIV 46 30 22 28 23 7 -34 -10 -37 -64 -49 -39 -12 -3 0 0 1 700-850 TADV 3 3 8 9 14 8 7 0 -4 -15 -20 -25 -6 -6 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1183 1200 1212 1245 1296 1398 1469 1473 1381 1197 1041 1022 1160 1436 1749 2054 2000 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.9 21.9 22.9 25.1 26.7 27.6 27.6 26.7 25.0 23.1 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.4 30.1 30.4 30.1 29.1 27.5 26.5 26.7 28.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 10 6 3 7 10 9 10 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 16 10 6 1 1 1 0 0 2 7 14 13 30 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -32. -31. -32. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 28.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 09/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 12.8% 8.7% 7.3% 4.8% 8.6% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 09/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 32 30 29 30 29 30 30 31 33 36 40 44 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 28 27 28 27 28 28 29 31 34 38 42 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 24 23 24 23 24 24 25 27 30 34 38 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 17 18 17 18 18 19 21 24 28 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT