* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL082023 09/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 59 54 43 32 26 21 21 23 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 59 54 43 32 26 21 21 23 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 60 54 44 36 31 28 29 31 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 28 35 38 39 30 33 26 27 14 13 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 20 5 6 6 5 -2 -3 -7 -3 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 229 229 219 211 214 214 213 240 250 285 272 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 25.3 23.0 24.9 22.3 19.6 18.4 17.7 17.4 17.3 17.5 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 111 96 108 91 80 75 71 71 71 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -47.9 -47.9 -48.1 -48.2 -48.3 -48.5 -49.2 -49.7 -50.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.6 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 47 43 40 39 40 48 49 48 58 60 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 33 33 33 28 26 22 20 20 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 53 65 59 41 -11 -45 -42 -30 26 55 134 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 97 94 83 101 59 46 6 5 19 3 -11 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -41 -39 -33 -33 -36 -34 -18 -21 -9 0 0 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 727 639 613 662 869 1179 1465 1514 1382 1249 1033 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 40.1 41.2 42.4 43.6 45.6 47.2 48.3 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.3 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.9 52.7 50.5 48.1 45.8 41.6 37.0 33.0 31.0 29.2 27.3 24.3 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 21 21 19 18 16 11 6 6 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -18. -27. -36. -44. -49. -53. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -3. 2. 9. 17. 24. 28. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -6. -10. -17. -21. -23. -27. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -16. -27. -38. -44. -49. -49. -47. -48. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 39.0 54.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082023 FRANKLIN 09/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 65 59 54 43 32 26 21 21 23 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 60 55 44 33 27 22 22 24 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 55 44 33 27 22 22 24 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 44 33 27 22 22 24 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT