* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 47 50 52 48 40 32 24 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 47 50 52 48 40 32 24 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 44 46 45 39 33 29 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 14 16 29 38 49 49 52 50 39 24 25 27 31 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 0 1 2 1 -4 0 2 -3 -4 1 3 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 187 227 227 234 222 215 205 203 199 208 211 208 225 229 224 228 215 SST (C) 27.4 28.5 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 27.6 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.1 25.2 24.1 21.9 21.1 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 144 150 149 148 150 147 132 132 127 122 111 103 96 84 80 78 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.4 -49.7 -49.9 -49.7 -50.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 44 44 46 47 48 45 44 38 37 38 39 37 41 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 21 22 25 23 20 18 16 16 16 15 12 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 48 50 57 71 96 106 101 58 17 -15 -35 -59 -43 -22 -25 200 MB DIV 2 0 1 7 25 50 77 25 35 4 16 0 0 13 17 15 22 700-850 TADV -26 -10 -12 -12 -6 -7 -10 -26 -19 -6 2 6 5 5 -13 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 897 999 1101 1138 1177 1288 1243 1144 1049 896 735 647 640 577 467 402 365 LAT (DEG N) 32.1 31.8 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.8 33.1 34.7 36.3 37.9 39.4 40.3 40.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.6 64.1 62.4 60.4 58.7 57.1 56.7 57.0 57.0 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 4 6 9 11 10 9 8 6 3 3 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 20 26 24 21 26 23 11 13 12 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 394 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 3. 4. 4. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -18. -23. -30. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 3. -5. -13. -20. -27. -26. -32. -39. -45. -46. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.1 67.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.4% 11.3% 9.6% 7.9% 10.6% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.5% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 3.6% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 45 47 50 52 48 40 32 24 18 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 50 52 48 40 32 24 18 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 48 44 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 40 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT