* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122023 09/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 27 25 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 18 16 17 17 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 -1 2 3 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 184 184 182 197 190 198 207 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 123 121 121 120 123 126 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 59 56 53 50 47 44 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 15 13 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 42 23 24 5 -34 -35 -40 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 17 12 11 13 -8 -31 -34 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 8 14 14 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1195 1248 1309 1380 1445 1600 1756 1838 1940 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.3 22.3 23.1 23.8 25.3 26.2 26.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 32.1 33.5 34.3 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 6 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 7 6 9 3 4 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 28.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 TWELVE 09/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 11.7% 8.1% 7.1% 4.5% 7.9% 6.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.8% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 TWELVE 09/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 30 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 25 25 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 22 22 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 16 16 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT