* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 48 42 35 29 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 48 42 35 29 25 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 44 43 39 33 28 25 22 20 18 16 15 16 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 16 19 26 39 51 53 57 48 37 28 24 23 34 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 1 2 -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 -2 2 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 242 249 244 222 214 206 199 202 204 202 195 199 219 227 233 247 257 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.4 24.3 23.0 22.2 21.6 20.8 18.5 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 148 148 149 144 132 129 125 116 97 88 84 83 80 74 69 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.6 -49.7 -49.6 -49.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.6 -54.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 45 46 47 48 47 43 40 39 42 43 41 41 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 23 24 22 20 18 17 16 16 13 11 7 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 56 70 85 109 108 91 55 37 12 7 5 -6 -6 -47 -102 200 MB DIV -9 6 15 35 42 74 42 40 19 26 32 17 22 7 11 -16 23 700-850 TADV -14 -9 -11 -10 -17 -22 -18 -22 -6 3 10 3 -1 -6 -7 -5 18 LAND (KM) 1025 1089 1155 1205 1256 1244 1128 976 770 604 500 448 426 420 377 230 46 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.7 31.5 31.6 31.7 32.9 34.6 36.7 38.8 40.4 41.3 41.8 42.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.0 64.3 63.6 63.0 61.1 59.3 58.1 57.7 57.8 58.2 58.3 58.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 7 11 11 11 9 7 4 2 3 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 22 21 24 23 12 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 320 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -3. 1. 4. 6. 6. 9. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -18. -23. -28. -33. -31. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -3. -10. -16. -20. -24. -26. -33. -40. -43. -37. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.9 65.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.9% 10.1% 8.6% 6.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.5% 3.9% 3.0% 2.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 48 49 48 42 35 29 25 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 47 41 34 28 24 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 43 37 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT