* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122023 09/02/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 28 27 26 28 29 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 27 26 28 29 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 13 14 16 16 6 7 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 3 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 187 183 180 177 179 200 175 166 155 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 122 120 120 120 124 131 136 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 54 52 48 46 40 37 33 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 28 22 5 -23 -34 -42 -52 -83 -92 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 12 10 14 10 -31 -24 -27 -28 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 15 15 7 6 2 5 2 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1201 1260 1327 1409 1497 1647 1770 1891 1975 1990 1969 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.7 26.4 27.0 28.0 28.8 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.4 31.2 32.5 33.6 34.7 35.3 35.2 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 11 9 8 5 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 5 6 5 2 4 8 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.0 28.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 TWELVE 09/02/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 10.9% 7.6% 6.6% 3.9% 7.5% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.8% 2.2% 1.3% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 TWELVE 09/02/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 28 27 26 28 29 33 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 27 26 25 27 28 32 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 24 23 22 24 25 29 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 17 16 18 19 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT