* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 47 44 38 33 30 27 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 47 44 38 33 30 27 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 45 45 42 37 32 28 24 21 19 17 17 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 18 26 32 41 48 57 59 44 30 28 23 29 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 0 -1 0 -4 -3 0 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 250 221 217 216 200 201 198 209 197 196 210 223 214 214 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.0 24.3 22.6 21.3 19.9 18.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 148 147 148 146 131 129 124 111 97 87 81 76 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.5 -49.5 -49.6 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 44 45 46 44 42 46 43 44 41 39 39 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 23 22 20 18 16 16 14 11 8 5 2 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 69 92 97 107 119 101 98 79 66 46 21 1 30 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 26 31 31 57 71 49 28 24 35 12 29 6 31 30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -6 -10 -7 -17 -28 -20 0 -1 -3 2 -4 -7 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1102 1160 1218 1263 1269 1211 1066 865 681 556 464 390 337 287 249 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.9 32.2 33.5 35.5 37.8 39.6 40.7 41.4 42.1 43.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.8 64.1 63.5 62.8 62.0 60.1 58.7 58.0 57.9 58.3 58.9 59.0 58.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 9 11 12 10 7 5 4 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 21 25 26 23 9 13 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -36. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -15. -18. -25. -28. -35. -40. -38. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.7 64.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.0% 8.8% 7.2% 4.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 47 44 38 33 30 27 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 42 36 31 28 25 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 38 32 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 32 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT