* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122023 09/02/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 34 34 33 35 36 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 34 34 33 35 36 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 36 34 33 32 31 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 15 17 18 15 10 6 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 1 4 3 0 0 2 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 188 196 191 179 186 208 200 212 189 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 120 120 121 130 134 136 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 52 48 47 45 40 35 38 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 10 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 25 3 -25 -29 -34 -46 -62 -79 -76 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 14 13 5 -24 -38 -10 -22 -12 -24 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 17 17 8 4 5 3 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1257 1335 1409 1501 1594 1714 1852 1960 1987 2019 2071 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.5 26.1 27.0 27.8 28.4 29.1 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.1 29.8 30.4 31.2 32.0 33.1 34.3 35.2 35.3 35.4 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 5 4 3 2 3 7 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -18. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 4. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 29.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 KATIA 09/02/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.6% 6.0% 4.0% 3.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 KATIA 09/02/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 35 34 34 33 35 36 39 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 32 32 31 33 34 37 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 28 30 31 34 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 25 26 29 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT