* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 52 50 45 37 33 31 29 24 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 52 50 45 37 33 31 29 24 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 52 50 45 39 34 30 27 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 26 33 39 45 47 57 50 33 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 224 223 215 208 201 198 203 194 195 200 214 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 27.3 27.4 27.0 24.2 22.5 23.2 21.7 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 144 144 129 129 125 98 84 88 84 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.5 -49.7 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 45 48 46 45 43 39 40 42 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 22 21 19 16 16 15 14 12 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 99 106 102 117 110 104 77 63 37 26 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 46 37 40 54 62 44 24 23 13 27 10 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -9 -15 -19 -24 -5 0 9 6 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1192 1237 1269 1278 1271 1129 977 788 536 453 480 399 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.8 31.9 32.4 32.8 34.8 36.9 38.9 41.2 41.9 41.6 42.4 44.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.8 63.2 62.6 61.6 60.5 58.8 57.4 56.9 57.6 58.0 58.0 58.2 58.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 10 11 12 11 11 8 1 1 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 22 20 9 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -4. -1. 4. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -18. -24. -28. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -17. -19. -21. -26. -28. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.6 63.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.2% 8.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 52 50 45 37 33 31 29 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 47 42 34 30 28 26 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 44 39 31 27 25 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT