* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/02/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 38 44 48 53 61 66 70 73 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 38 44 48 53 61 66 70 73 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 27 28 28 28 28 31 35 40 45 50 55 62 68 75 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 28 27 23 16 9 2 8 11 11 9 16 13 18 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 0 0 3 3 4 1 -1 4 -2 -3 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 69 70 78 86 113 126 300 6 27 25 7 325 306 296 287 284 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.6 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 145 146 153 153 157 157 150 147 155 152 152 156 159 158 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 74 73 70 65 66 67 66 66 62 56 53 51 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 27 23 23 27 22 -1 -5 0 -11 -10 -16 -28 -28 -31 -20 -28 200 MB DIV 66 26 4 7 1 -22 -56 -29 26 0 -24 -23 -17 23 23 19 3 700-850 TADV 10 9 7 8 7 6 8 4 5 0 2 0 -2 3 -2 -9 0 LAND (KM) 404 525 660 777 908 1165 1431 1731 1708 1610 1431 1312 1211 991 778 589 350 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.4 20.9 22.3 23.5 24.8 27.4 30.2 33.2 36.4 39.5 42.4 45.1 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 13 13 14 16 16 15 14 14 15 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 22 21 18 15 20 23 27 31 28 33 63 49 57 49 68 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 36. 45. 53. 58. 63. 65. 64. 64. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -17. -19. -19. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 23. 28. 36. 41. 45. 48. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 19.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/02/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.79 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.9% 9.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 15.8% 8.1% 3.6% 4.8% 6.9% 9.2% 18.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 9.2% Consensus: 2.7% 10.9% 5.9% 3.3% 1.7% 2.4% 6.0% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/02/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 38 44 48 53 61 66 70 73 76 79 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 28 30 35 41 45 50 58 63 67 70 73 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 26 31 37 41 46 54 59 63 66 69 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 19 24 30 34 39 47 52 56 59 62 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT