* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDALIA AL102023 09/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 47 40 34 29 28 26 23 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 47 40 34 29 28 26 23 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 45 40 35 31 28 26 24 24 25 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 28 36 43 48 46 53 50 40 26 14 10 14 24 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 0 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 224 216 207 201 199 195 195 190 193 201 263 235 229 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.1 25.9 22.6 21.6 21.1 19.5 18.0 16.6 16.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 140 132 129 126 112 88 82 80 76 73 72 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -53.2 -54.8 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 46 46 46 45 43 42 40 39 38 36 42 53 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 23 22 18 17 17 17 16 13 10 9 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 96 98 111 105 100 88 82 54 31 25 3 44 -13 -82 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 37 43 65 69 69 33 33 20 -1 16 24 29 10 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -6 -14 -15 -27 -15 -8 0 6 0 6 12 -23 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1230 1247 1257 1207 1157 1041 848 638 477 385 320 237 159 104 236 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.3 32.6 33.4 34.2 36.1 38.3 40.4 41.8 42.5 42.9 43.9 45.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.2 62.4 61.5 60.6 59.6 58.0 56.9 57.0 57.7 58.3 58.9 58.8 57.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 11 9 6 3 4 7 9 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 19 13 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -22. -23. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -3. 1. 6. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -19. -24. -30. -32. -32. -39. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -22. -24. -27. -30. -31. -31. -36. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.9 63.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102023 IDALIA 09/02/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 49 47 40 34 29 28 26 23 20 19 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 46 39 33 28 27 25 22 19 18 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 36 30 25 24 22 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 31 25 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT