* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122023 09/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 51 49 45 43 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 51 49 45 43 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 55 55 53 49 46 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 15 20 15 14 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 0 2 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 190 188 185 195 208 190 203 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 122 121 121 122 126 130 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 47 43 40 38 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 14 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -16 -21 -22 -29 -43 -59 -78 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 18 -19 -27 -36 -25 -40 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 15 7 7 5 4 2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1377 1447 1519 1605 1692 1834 1959 2062 2085 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.4 28.1 29.0 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.9 32.7 34.0 35.1 35.9 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 7 7 6 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 3 2 3 6 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.5 30.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 KATIA 09/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.5% 11.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 7.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 KATIA 09/02/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 51 49 45 43 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 46 42 40 38 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 39 37 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 34 32 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT