* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/02/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 25 26 26 29 34 38 41 45 51 54 59 63 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 25 26 26 29 34 38 41 45 51 54 59 63 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 26 25 26 28 31 35 39 42 45 49 54 61 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 30 29 24 23 17 7 7 10 16 15 15 16 13 14 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 1 3 5 2 -1 -4 -1 2 -6 -4 -9 -11 SHEAR DIR 66 74 86 98 107 122 127 18 22 21 29 9 3 342 340 308 315 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 145 148 153 153 157 157 150 150 152 152 152 155 158 162 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 74 70 71 70 70 65 61 66 64 67 63 64 55 53 48 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 25 32 30 14 -5 -1 -14 -16 -24 -26 -40 -36 -37 -26 -32 200 MB DIV 9 -3 -21 -14 -28 -30 -71 0 15 8 -3 -5 -14 8 17 19 9 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 6 4 5 5 2 1 -2 0 2 1 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 506 614 714 830 946 1214 1465 1739 1695 1613 1438 1301 1201 990 755 546 284 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.3 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.1 27.8 30.5 33.5 36.5 39.4 42.1 44.9 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 17 15 22 23 28 31 27 36 52 49 57 48 68 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 27. 36. 45. 53. 59. 63. 65. 64. 65. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 26. 29. 34. 38. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.5 20.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/02/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 12.8% 8.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.6% 2.6% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 1.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/02/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 25 25 26 26 29 34 38 41 45 51 54 59 63 67 71 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 24 27 32 36 39 43 49 52 57 61 65 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 25 30 34 37 41 47 50 55 59 63 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 19 24 28 31 35 41 44 49 53 57 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT