* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122023 09/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 35 34 32 31 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 19 17 11 16 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 1 3 2 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 201 202 204 209 211 197 214 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 121 121 124 127 126 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 42 39 38 40 44 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -35 -34 -38 -50 -61 -75 -68 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 -22 -30 -38 -5 -36 -20 -13 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 8 7 6 4 2 2 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1483 1572 1662 1726 1789 1920 2030 2046 2074 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.8 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.9 29.4 29.6 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.7 31.4 32.2 32.7 33.3 34.4 35.4 35.5 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 6 6 6 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 14 CX,CY: -4/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.2 30.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 KATIA 09/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.1% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 KATIA 09/03/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 35 33 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 33 31 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 26 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT