* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 46 53 59 66 75 82 86 88 90 95 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 46 53 59 66 75 82 86 88 90 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 25 25 28 31 38 45 54 62 71 80 88 96 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 18 15 15 8 1 7 8 10 9 4 3 12 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 -1 -1 5 0 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -4 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 71 73 94 101 123 154 136 78 79 57 62 340 300 287 254 272 271 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 155 157 155 155 157 150 147 148 150 152 157 155 161 170 173 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 67 66 64 64 65 62 57 50 48 48 52 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 8 10 12 9 -1 -4 -8 -8 -2 -6 -13 -12 -19 -17 -25 -27 200 MB DIV -15 1 5 -7 -27 -56 -7 1 4 -5 -20 -8 -12 2 12 -4 3 700-850 TADV 4 6 19 14 16 12 6 8 3 6 4 11 7 2 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 732 909 1060 1209 1356 1653 1781 1692 1500 1368 1250 1092 836 607 303 91 148 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.3 25.1 26.7 28.2 29.7 32.6 35.7 38.8 41.7 44.3 46.9 49.6 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 15 14 15 16 15 13 13 13 14 15 16 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 19 22 24 28 34 27 38 46 48 55 63 51 63 75 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 15. 25. 34. 43. 50. 55. 59. 61. 61. 61. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 41. 50. 57. 61. 63. 65. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 23.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 12.6% 8.2% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.9% 2.7% 4.8% 15.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% Consensus: 1.2% 6.8% 4.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/03/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 46 53 59 66 75 82 86 88 90 95 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 45 52 58 65 74 81 85 87 89 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 42 49 55 62 71 78 82 84 86 91 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 35 42 48 55 64 71 75 77 79 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT