* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/03/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 38 50 59 66 68 71 73 75 74 72 71 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 38 50 59 66 68 71 73 75 74 72 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 41 47 52 56 60 65 70 72 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 9 9 9 11 14 15 15 20 15 17 14 14 10 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -1 -2 -7 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 93 4 18 31 36 40 66 73 96 110 86 68 65 44 48 307 231 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.6 26.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 169 169 169 165 163 160 156 153 156 155 152 142 125 108 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.3 -50.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 77 77 77 79 82 83 83 83 86 89 90 89 84 79 72 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 45 45 53 40 37 43 41 49 58 61 66 61 66 71 72 200 MB DIV 8 36 52 61 64 56 97 84 148 140 184 133 144 112 65 24 4 700-850 TADV 0 -3 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 2 -1 -6 -7 -11 -13 -2 1 LAND (KM) 387 394 436 485 543 617 657 703 747 823 888 890 869 732 688 728 856 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 13.2 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.1 97.3 98.4 99.6 100.6 102.4 103.7 104.8 106.2 107.7 109.1 110.3 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 6 7 7 7 9 12 15 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 30 42 38 31 27 22 18 17 20 43 12 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 17. 27. 36. 41. 46. 51. 55. 59. 60. 61. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 18. 30. 39. 46. 48. 51. 53. 55. 54. 52. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 96.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.4 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 28.3% 15.6% 7.0% 5.7% 19.8% 61.0% 66.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 10.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 2.1% 4.2% 23.8% Consensus: 1.4% 13.0% 6.0% 2.5% 2.1% 7.3% 21.7% 30.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##