* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122023 09/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 26 26 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 26 26 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 27 25 24 22 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 19 14 13 15 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 1 0 2 3 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 196 205 213 216 192 213 218 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 120 120 121 124 125 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 42 40 39 37 40 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 12 11 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -16 -28 -36 -42 -63 -72 -67 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -22 -33 -22 -36 -21 0 6 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1561 1631 1702 1760 1818 1927 1990 2003 2045 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.8 35.3 35.3 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 2 3 4 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.8 31.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122023 KATIA 09/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 6.9% 4.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122023 KATIA 09/03/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 27 26 26 26 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 29 29 29 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 28 28 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT