* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 09/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 46 54 58 63 71 76 78 79 80 84 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 46 54 58 63 71 76 78 79 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 23 25 29 35 42 49 55 62 69 76 83 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 20 19 15 7 6 8 11 15 12 11 11 13 17 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 3 0 -2 -4 -1 2 -2 3 -2 9 0 SHEAR DIR 83 86 88 109 121 124 44 62 56 46 29 3 310 300 286 293 286 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.3 29.1 29.6 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 155 153 155 158 153 153 149 149 153 150 159 156 165 172 168 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 68 64 69 68 70 67 64 57 56 53 59 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 16 17 11 2 1 1 5 4 -10 -15 -16 -17 -23 -31 -41 200 MB DIV 0 4 -3 3 -9 -51 -3 17 16 -1 -1 -9 20 28 10 5 8 700-850 TADV 6 6 2 6 5 5 5 2 1 1 3 4 3 -8 -2 -12 -19 LAND (KM) 965 1147 1307 1445 1591 1717 1653 1510 1337 1226 1127 1024 755 555 235 113 216 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.5 27.4 29.0 30.4 31.8 34.5 37.4 40.2 42.7 45.0 47.4 50.1 53.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 13 14 16 17 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 23 24 26 34 26 32 29 36 54 51 65 56 68 82 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 356 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 15. 26. 35. 44. 51. 57. 61. 63. 62. 63. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 29. 33. 38. 46. 51. 53. 54. 55. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 25.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 09/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.2% 8.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 4.2% 10.3% 24.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 9.9% Consensus: 1.2% 8.1% 4.0% 2.1% 0.3% 1.4% 7.1% 11.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 09/03/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 46 54 58 63 71 76 78 79 80 84 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 45 53 57 62 70 75 77 78 79 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 42 50 54 59 67 72 74 75 76 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 35 43 47 52 60 65 67 68 69 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT