* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 09/03/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 31 40 48 55 59 63 64 67 67 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 31 40 48 55 59 63 64 67 67 66 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 25 29 33 39 45 53 61 71 79 85 87 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 10 12 15 12 14 9 9 9 9 9 3 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -3 -4 -7 -7 -1 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 352 17 20 23 43 59 74 95 116 73 83 77 356 75 67 181 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.4 27.2 26.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 167 168 170 166 163 162 158 156 157 157 158 150 137 128 119 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 79 80 83 85 85 84 86 86 87 84 81 76 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 38 42 33 28 27 29 27 45 59 80 77 87 82 74 71 200 MB DIV 32 32 55 58 55 68 80 103 116 146 137 159 123 89 66 86 41 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -6 -4 -7 -3 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 464 500 543 594 632 685 716 750 775 840 904 1012 1019 1059 1110 1160 1197 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.2 14.1 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.3 99.5 100.6 101.5 103.0 104.1 105.2 106.6 108.4 110.5 112.7 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 8 6 5 6 8 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 28 37 38 31 28 25 21 17 21 48 18 22 11 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 17. 28. 36. 42. 48. 52. 56. 60. 60. 61. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -0. 2. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 35. 39. 43. 44. 47. 47. 46. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 96.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.7 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 15.9% 6.5% 3.1% 2.1% 10.7% 5.5% 19.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 0.7% 6.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 3.6% 1.9% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 09/03/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##